survivor crapshoot

tonite is the survivor finale, and i'd be completely remiss if i didn't talk about it. i had intended to give weekly recaps like i did for the last season (i love trashing reality show people and talking about what they did wrong to get them booted), but i'd been too busy to watch it every week. of course, i'm all caught up now for tonite's final tribal councils, so i'll try to at least talk about this season a little bit.

had you told me that this was the final four we were going to have from the beginning of the season, i'd tell you that you were crazy, but it's impossible to predict what'll happen between then and now, so it's also completely plausible. we are left with an all koror final not because koror outmaneuvered the other tribe after the merge, but mostly because ulong had some strange thing going on where they couldn't win ANY immunity challenges and there was no merge. but that's in the past. i seriously don't have any clear idea who's gonna take the million in the end this season, but ima look at the contestants one-by-one and see if i can figure it out:

the pretty much useless jenn used her relationship with gregg and her lack of ability to win anything to get this far. no one saw her as a threat and thus no one bothered voting her off. it's hard to say what'll happen with her. she'll definitely make it to the final three, since the next to go will surely be either ian or tom, but will she be able to make it to the final two? i think that's the real challenge for her. she's so harmless, who would want to go up against her as opposed to someone like katie? up against ian or tom, i think jenn would lose, because ian and tom worked more to get to where they were. up against katie, it's up in the air. i hate katie and i would never give her the million, but will the people in the jury feel the same? katie did work slightly harder by actually having a strategy, but will that be enuf?

goofy dolphin-trainer ian shouldn't win. he'd been playing a pretty good game until he started crying over katie's stupid-ass pouting guilt trip. that really annoyed me. but should that all have been an act, i salute him for getting katie to trust him by crying. of course, i don't think he _should_ win (someone else has played an even better game), but he just might. if he makes it to the final three (i.e. if he wins the first immunity tonite), will he have enuf endurance to win the next against katie and jenn? if jenn wins it, i don't think she would take him to the final two. but will katie take him? i think she might, out of some twisted sense of loyalty, and if it was between ian and katie, i think ian might be able to win.

i despise katie. i think she's annoying and ugly, and those kinds of people shouldn't be on tv. supposedly, she's funny or something, but i didn't like what they showed of her sense of humor. also, katie's one of those constant ship-jumpers, like she has said herself. her strategy was to jump ship once it looked like it was about to sink, and that has resulted in no one trusting her (except for ian, which is just stupid on his part) and lots of people disliking her. i don't think there's any way for her to win, but i wasn't on the island, so i can't tell what people's feelings really are. up against any of the other contestants, i see the other contestant winning. i think her best bet would be against jenn, and what would the jury look like should that happen? gregg will vote for jenn, as will caryn, janu and coby. that's already a majority regardless of how stephenie, tom or ian vote (i think the only sure katie vote is from ian, unless she royally screws him over). thus, i don't think katie can win.

i guess that makes my pick to win tom, tho that's certainly a risky pick. yes, he has played an awesome game of survivor. as one of the strongest members of the cast, i thot he would've been one of the first booted once they got to tribal council. for some reason he was able to tap into some strange sense of trust amid his alliance-mates with his leadership skills and hot daddy looks. that being said, at this point, were i one of the other contestants, i would want tom gone as soon as possible. everything hinges on him winning the remaining immunity challenges. if he loses the next one, he's gone. for the last challenge, if katie wins it, she'll take jenn. if jenn wins it, she'll take katie. i believe that tom can win the remaining immunity challenges, but you never kno...

if not tom, then ian. and if not ian, then jenn. sorry katie, you suck.

of course, i could be completely wrong about people's voting habits. i assume that only one of the guys will make it to the final immunity challenge. it just makes sense to me that the strongest member will be voted off next. but if somehow tom wins the immunity and they don't vote ian off, but instead jenn... well then, in that situation, ian will still take katie (a smarter and more emotionally sound choice for him) if he wins the last challenge, and katie will take ian. if tom is smart (which he is, for the most part), he will take katie too. he is closer to ian, but i don't think he'll let that cloud his judgement. it hasn't so far. of course, the most exciting final tribal council would be tom vs. ian, cuz i really don't kno which way that would swing, tho... i think tom would still come out on top.

tonite will definitely be fun (at 8 pm on cbs!). i dunno what the challenges are and what might happen in them, so i could be so totally off with my predictions, but that's just how i see it now. if tom loses either immunity challenge, my pick is shot. regardless, go, go, go tom!

p.s. congrats to uchenna and joyce for winning the amazing race! you were the team i was rooting for in the end (after adorable couple lynn and alex were eliminated, i put most of my support behind uchenna and joyce, tho i secretly rooted for rob and amber too). there was just no way that ron and kelly could win (sorry, ron). kelly wasn't as bad as whiny bitch flo, airheaded kendra, fellow beauty queen nicole or angry and abusive colin, but i hated her just the same. i had intended to recap this season of the amazing race as well, but i couldn't for the same reasons i couldn't do it for survivor or the apprentice. poop!

speaking of the apprentice, i think it's a no-brainer. kendra's gonna be the next apprentice! book smarts all the way! i used to be all for tana (i thot she was great), and i was ambivalent about kendra (did she join the show mid-season or something, cuz really...), but after that last task? i don't think so... my sister totally disagrees with me ("but tana is more of a leader, had a harder task, and had to work with a bunch of idiots! plus, kendra just rubs me the wrong way!"), but i guess we'll see what happens this thursday, won't we?